Over the past two decades, the development path that Armenia has travelled is, as economic history has shown, unsustainable in the long-term. The economic model the nation has relied upon has resulted in the accumulation of many imbalances, including a significant build-up of external debt. When this book was being written, the nation was reaching certain crossroads whereby such imbalances would need to be addressed. The restructuring of the Armenian economy would either be forced by market pressures, or done proactively by the policymakers themselves. As events in other countries have illustrated, the outcomes of such policy choices can have important repercussions – especially for nations in transition, and with developing institutional frameworks. The first part of the book examines the nation's progress on a relative basis. Armenia's economic development and indicators are compared to those of its peer nations over a period of several decades. The aim is to provide a data-driven evaluation of its post-independence years in relation to its peers. The second part of the book describes three possible scenarios that might unfold in Armenia in the medium-to-long term. The analysis is heavily reliant upon historical precedents and policy examples from other nations that have shared similar economic predicaments and imbalances. Given Armenia’s growing external liabilities, the path towards a beautiful restructuring is, unfortunately, becoming increasingly narrow. About the author: Samson Avetian is the founder of Avetian & Co, a cross-country macroeconomic and policy research firm. Previously, he worked as an international management consultant at Capgemini Consulting. He is a graduate of Harvard Business School, Gothenburg University and Stockholm University. He is also the co-founder of the Angel Investor Club of Armenia (AICA). Other commitments include part-time lecturing, and public and private consulting.
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